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	<title>Zócalo Public Squarenew year &#8211; Zócalo Public Square</title>
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		<title>How Zozobra, the Original Burning Man, Became Santa Fe’s ‘New Year’ Tradition</title>
		<link>https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2022/12/26/zozobra-santa-fe-tradition/ideas/essay/</link>
		<comments>https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2022/12/26/zozobra-santa-fe-tradition/ideas/essay/#respond</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Dec 2022 08:01:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>by Raymond Sandoval</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Essay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[new year]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Santa Fe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tradition]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/?p=132733</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Grievances, everyday annoyances, unexpected sorrows. A loved one leaves by choice or by a visit from the Grim Reaper. A financial burden turns life upside down. Even a flat tire at the wrong time can send someone over the emotional edge. It’s no wonder we annually feel an urgent need to make New Year’s resolutions, hoping for better outcomes.</p>
<p>What if there were a ritual for releasing the woes, anxieties, and grief that plague us despite our best intentions? Santa Fe, New Mexico, “the City Different,” has such a tradition. Known to locals as the city’s own special New Year, the Burning of Zozobra, the original burning man who predates the Black Rock City effigy by 60 years, is our way to let go of worries and sorrow and make a fresh start.</p>
<p>In 1917, Will Shuster, a Philadelphia artist who worked for the Curtis Publishing Company, answered the World </p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2022/12/26/zozobra-santa-fe-tradition/ideas/essay/">How Zozobra, the Original Burning Man, Became Santa Fe’s ‘New Year’ Tradition</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org">Zócalo Public Square</a>.</p>
]]></description>
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<p>Grievances, everyday annoyances, unexpected sorrows. A loved one leaves by choice or by a visit from the Grim Reaper. A financial burden turns life upside down. Even a flat tire at the wrong time can send someone over the emotional edge. It’s no wonder we annually feel an urgent need to make New Year’s resolutions, hoping for better outcomes.</p>
<p>What if there were a ritual for releasing the woes, anxieties, and grief that plague us despite our best intentions? Santa Fe, New Mexico, “the City Different,” has such a tradition. Known to locals as the city’s own special New Year,<a href="https://burnzozobra.com/about/"> the Burning of Zozobra</a>, the original burning man who predates the Black Rock City effigy by 60 years, is our way to let go of worries and sorrow and make a fresh start.</p>
<p>In 1917, Will Shuster, a Philadelphia artist who worked for the Curtis Publishing Company, answered the World War I call of duty. Sent to France to organize and command an Army Message Center, he endured sleepless nights, emergency rations, and muddy trenches before being mustard gassed for his efforts. Returning home in 1919, Shuster received a diagnosis of tuberculosis, generally considered terminal in that era. His doctor noted that Shuster could stay in Philadelphia and live for perhaps a year, or he could head west to a place where he would “probably die of old age, snake bite or drinking too much bad whiskey.” <a href="https://www.aaa.si.edu/collections/interviews/oral-history-interview-will-shuster-13208#transcript">Shuster</a> took his doctor’s advice, packed up the family and moved to Santa Fe, where he proceeded to live for 50 fulfilling years.</p>
<p>In New Mexico, Shuster became part of a self-titled group known as Los Cinco Pintores (the Five Painters), locally christened as the “five nuts in huts,” a pointed comment on their side-by-side self-built adobe abodes and their financial challenges. When one member of the group sold a painting, all benefited from the proceeds. After one such 1923 sale, Shuster insisted that the group blow the money on a Christmas Eve night out at the new La Fonda hotel bar. Frustrated by listening to his friends’ grousing, Shuster demanded that they write down their gloomy thoughts on paper, then put the papers into a bowl and set them on fire. Though they were promptly tossed out of the bar, the act became a kindling of an idea that ignited the following year after Shuster found inspiration on a trip to Mexico during Easter time.</p>
<p>Accompanied by E. Dana Johnson, a prominent Santa Fe journalist and editor, while traveling Shuster witnessed a Holy Week <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burning_of_Judas">tradition</a> in which an effigy of Judas was paraded around a village on a donkey as people threw shoes and hissed at it. Shuster was struck by how the crowd united in solidarity against the torment and despair that the Judas figure represented. Recalling how it felt burning his gloom with his friends at La Fonda the year before, he married the two memories into a unique whole. That fall, in September 1924, he built his own 6-foot-tall effigy, filled it with glooms written on paper, and burned it in his back yard. At first, Shuster referred to the effigy as Old Man Groucher, but he and Johnson ultimately settled on naming it Zozobra, a Spanish word denoting anxiety or gloom.</p>
<div class="pullquote">What if there was a ritual for releasing the woes, anxieties, and grief that plague us despite our best intentions?</div>
<p>From the start, Shuster was adamant that Zozobra was not a political or religious figure but instead a manifestation of the negativity that humans experience, the sorrows and hurts we inflict upon ourselves and others. By letting those thoughts and feelings be consumed in the flames that consumed Zozobra, he hoped that the tradition would help people cleanse themselves of the gloom, regrets, and sadness they carried.</p>
<p>Zozobra is a relative youngster in the history of Santa Fe, which boasts the oldest U.S. capitol, but the burning of a functional marionette has already become a cherished local cultural tradition, part of the personal story of countless families. Schools create Zozobra lesson plans, and people who have helped with Zozobra’s construction, stuffed it with shredded paper, or performed in the accompanying pageant ignite the same fire for participation in their own children. It’s not unusual to hear kids recite the color of Zozobra’s hair in years before they were born, and on Halloween, it’s common to see a little Zozobra at the door.</p>
<p>In 1964, Shuster gifted the nonprofit <a href="https://www.kiwanis.org/">Kiwanis Club</a> of Santa Fe with the rights to Zozobra. In keeping with the Kiwanis’ mission, the Santa Fe club donates net proceeds from the event to help fund local organizations that work to make life better for children. A lifelong lover of Zozobra, I’ve served as its event chair since 2012, taking over from Ray Valdez, who oversaw the burning of Old Man Gloom for more than two decades.</p>
<div id="attachment_132748" style="width: 234px" class="wp-caption alignright"><a href="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-132748" class="wp-image-132748 size-medium" src="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-224x300.png" alt=" | Zocalo Public Square • Arizona State University • Smithsonian" width="224" height="300" srcset="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-224x300.png 224w, https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-597x800.png 597w, https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-768x1029.png 768w, https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-250x335.png 250w, https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-440x590.png 440w, https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-305x409.png 305w, https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-634x850.png 634w, https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-963x1291.png 963w, https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-260x348.png 260w, https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-820x1099.png 820w, https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-1146x1536.png 1146w, https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-85x115.png 85w, https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box-682x914.png 682w, https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/zozobra-gloom-box.png 1343w" sizes="(max-width: 224px) 100vw, 224px" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-132748" class="wp-caption-text">Courtesy of Zócalo Public Square.</p></div>
<p>We’re proud to have over 70,000 people flock to Fort Marcy Park to take part in the annual burning of Zozobra. The narrative plays out the same way every time: Ostensibly invited to a party in his honor, Zozobra, also known as Old Man Gloom, gleefully attends the festivities, intent on robbing Santa Fe of its hope and happiness. Using his dark forces to cloud the minds of Santa Fe’s children, portrayed by local students, he turns these innocents into “Gloomies”—minions he can use to wreak havoc on the city. But as Zozobra and his Gloomies prematurely celebrate his intended triumph, a group of torch bearers representing townsfolk appear to counter the spreading gloom. Zozobra and the Gloomies frighten the torchbearers away. But just when it looks as though all is lost, the watching crowd begins to chant “Burn him, Burn him!”</p>
<p>This impassioned cry summons a Fire Spirit, who materializes to battle with Zozobra for the soul of the city. The annual clash between good and evil ends when the Fire Spirit’s flaming torches signal Zozobra’s demise under a blaze of fireworks, said by Shuster to be his way of painting the sky. United in the spiritual balm of releasing anguish and heartbreak, those witnessing this spectacle celebrate as the 50-foot-tall effigy and their sorrows become glowing embers, clearing the emotional air.</p>
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<p>Over the past few years of devastating losses and trauma, the purging of grief that Zozobra provides has meant more than ever. While the wounds we suffer, both external and internal, never really disappear, the fellowship and goodwill that call forth the Fire Spirit serve as a reminder that, as humans, we can help one another heal the emotional burdens we carry.</p>
<p>The return of gloom is inevitable, as is the need to vanquish all that Zozobra represents. Because what is Zozobra but a manifestation of the spiritual struggle between light and darkness, played out in an annual drama?</p>
<p>Inspired by the promise made to Zozobra’s creator to present this pageant in perpetuity, Kiwanis’ commitment to the tradition is unwavering. Our volunteers are already making preparations to get next year’s ritual underway, readying Old Man Gloom to help us with sorrows to come. Zozobra will burn again.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2022/12/26/zozobra-santa-fe-tradition/ideas/essay/">How Zozobra, the Original Burning Man, Became Santa Fe’s ‘New Year’ Tradition</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org">Zócalo Public Square</a>.</p>
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		<title>At Last! 2016 Is in the Past</title>
		<link>https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/12/28/last-2016-past/chronicles/poetry/</link>
		<comments>https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/12/28/last-2016-past/chronicles/poetry/#respond</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Dec 2016 08:01:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>By Sarah Rothbard</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Poetry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[end of the year]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[new year]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[poem]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[poetry]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/?p=82444</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>You’re game for the year ’17, so you say,<br />
It’s time that the drear of ’16 went away.<br />
Let’s keep the murk past, back where it belongs,<br />
Stop dwelling on all of the things that went wrong.</p>
<p>To you, we now say: have you lost your sense of humor?<br />
That George Clooney break-up is still just a rumor.<br />
And besides, this past year wasn’t really so terrible.<br />
Zócalo rhyming just might make it bearable.</p>
<p>This year, after all, the Cubs took the Series,<br />
Gravitational wave detection proved Einstein’s Theory.<br />
But, yes, the U.K. left the E.U. in the dust,<br />
California, meanwhile, voted In Pot We Trust.</p>
<p>Once again #BlackLivesMatter put “post-race” to the lie,<br />
Obama saw Cuba. Castro—finally—died.<br />
Zika—dread virus—wreaked despair ’cross a continent,<br />
Whilst ’round the world, populism was dominant.</p>
<p>The Olympics took Rio, Simone Biles charmed the nation,<br />
Russian dopers were banned, Lochte trashed a gas station.<br />
Civil </p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/12/28/last-2016-past/chronicles/poetry/">At Last! 2016 Is in the Past</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org">Zócalo Public Square</a>.</p>
]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You’re game for the year ’17, so you say,<br />
It’s time that the drear of ’16 went away.<br />
Let’s keep the murk past, back where it belongs,<br />
Stop dwelling on all of the things that went wrong.</p>
<p>To you, we now say: have you lost your sense of humor?<br />
That George Clooney break-up is still just a rumor.<br />
And besides, this past year wasn’t really so terrible.<br />
Zócalo rhyming just might make it bearable.</p>
<p>This year, after all, the Cubs took the Series,<br />
Gravitational wave detection proved Einstein’s Theory.<br />
But, yes, the U.K. left the E.U. in the dust,<br />
California, meanwhile, voted In Pot We Trust.</p>
<p>Once again #BlackLivesMatter put “post-race” to the lie,<br />
Obama saw Cuba. Castro—finally—died.<br />
Zika—dread virus—wreaked despair ’cross a continent,<br />
Whilst ’round the world, populism was dominant.</p>
<p>The Olympics took Rio, Simone Biles charmed the nation,<br />
Russian dopers were banned, Lochte trashed a gas station.<br />
Civil War destroyed Syria and thousands lost lives,<br />
The world followed on Twitter—with those who’d survived.</p>
<p>Peyton Manning claimed a Super Bowl, the Rams moved to L.A.<br />
But sports’ biggest triumph was won by Beyoncé.<br />
“Formation”—last-minute—stole the halftime show,<br />
Then in dropped <i>Lemonade</i>, and the rest? Well, you know. </p>
<p>Justice Scalia’s death meant SCOTUS purgatory,<br />
Sequels won the box office—<i>Captain America</i> and <i>Finding Dory</i>.<br />
Fake headlines in newsfeeds, fake accounts at Wells Fargo.<br />
The Mexican marines recaptured El Chapo.</p>
<p>Attackers flayed Brussels; Belgium was in mourning.<br />
A Bastille Day assault forced France back to high warning.<br />
Pulse nightclub, Orlando—an American tragedy.<br />
Death and destruction all across Turkey.</p>
<p>Violence hit Germany at a Berlin Christmas market.<br />
An ambassador in Ankara was an assassination target.<br />
Oakland’s Ghost Ship fire left 36 killed.<br />
Dakota pipeline protests kept oil from being drilled.</p>
<p>The Philippines picked Duterte and got a bloody drug war.<br />
The refugee crisis worsened; countries didn’t open doors.<br />
In October, Hurricane Matthew hit the Atlantic region,<br />
Then earthquakes rocked Italy; fall was disaster season.</p>
<p>LeBron James redeemed himself and his hometown,<br />
Leicester City won an unlikely Premier League crown.<br />
<i>Hamilton</i> crushed the Tonys but the Oscars stayed so white,<br />
Bob Dylan got a Nobel but declined Sweden’s invite. </p>
<p>All across America the fight for $15 was raged,<br />
California led the way in passing a new minimum wage.<br />
The state banned plastic bags and slapped a tax on cigarettes,<br />
Kamala Harris went to Washington to rep CA Democrats. </p>
<p>Brangelina called it quits, Kim Kardashian was robbed in Paris.<br />
About that <a href=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvk89PQHDIM>Damn Daniel video</a> &#8230; we’re all a little embarrassed.<br />
After one too many rants, Kanye was hospitalized.<br />
Roger Ailes was dumped by Fox News, then by the guy he advised.</p>
<p>Harambe was killed but lived on as a meme.<br />
OJ Simpson again invaded TV screens.<br />
Vin Scully retired; Dodger fans took it hard.<br />
Exploding Samsung phones left their owners slightly charred.</p>
<p>RIP to Gwen Ifill, Merle Haggard, and Ali,<br />
Gene Wilder, Janet Reno, novelist Harper Lee.<br />
Deepest mourning went to beloved musicians<br />
A handful of stars to whom we still listen:</p>
<p>The ballads of Juan Gabriel, the lungs of Sharon Jones,<br />
The enigmatic verse that was Leonard Cohen’s alone.<br />
The virtuosity of Prince that electrified us to the end,<br />
That ineffable, inimitable David Bowie blend.</p>
<p>The year wasn’t all bad; Zócalo had moments great:<br />
In <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/03/11/the-u-k-has-already-opted-out-of-the-ever-closer-union-with-europe/events/the-takeaway/>London</a> and <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/10/19/can-liberal-democracy-worst-enemy/events/the-takeaway/>Berlin</a>—and the <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/10/08/can-hawaii-be-americas-bridge-to-asia-and-the-world/events/the-takeaway/>Aloha State</a>,<br />
With stops in <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/11/18/fake-news-wont-kill-democracy/events/the-takeaway/>Spain</a>, <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/10/27/sprawl-cant-keep-inland-empire/events/the-takeaway/>Riverside</a>, and downtown <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/10/26/dear-government-careful-help-central-valley/events/the-takeaway/>Fresno</a>,<br />
We pondered <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/07/25/having-some-awkward-family-fun-on-a-friday-night/events/the-takeaway/>movies</a>, <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/06/22/almost-any-politician-in-a-democracy-is-a-bit-of-a-demagogue/events/the-takeaway/>demagogues</a>, and even <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/12/15/go-ahead-eat-genetically-modified-vegetables/events/the-takeaway/>GMOs</a>.</p>
<p>We dug into the depths of <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/05/23/witty-mosaics-offer-a-beautiful-solution-to-the-pothole-problem/viewings/glimpses/>pothole covers</a> and <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/05/25/frivolous-humanities-helped-prisoners-survive-communist-romania/ideas/nexus/>dictators</a>,<br />
The secret of <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/04/26/americas-first-indian-tv-star-was-a-black-man-from-missouri/chronicles/who-we-were/>an “Indian” star</a>, and <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/02/29/tater-tot-hotdish-minnesota-soul-food/chronicles/the-voyage-home/>Minnesota’s love of taters</a>.<br />
A <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/feature/canadian-philosopher-whos-optimistic-humanity/>philosopher’s wisdom</a> and a <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/feature/south-los-angeles/>rising South L.A.</a>,<br />
<a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/feature/russian-menace-american-imagination/>Russia in the imagination</a> and <a href=https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/feature/health-isnt-a-system-its-a-community/>California neighborhoods today</a>.</p>
<p>Did you read to the end? Did we miss a big story?<br />
(Though by now you’re full up on sadness and glory.)<br />
That’s it, for Zócalo rhymes and reviewing,<br />
There’s more ahead next year: events and more brewing.</p>
<p>Leonard Cohen’s where we leave you, as the new year begins:<br />
“There are cracks in everything / that’s how the light gets in.”</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/12/28/last-2016-past/chronicles/poetry/">At Last! 2016 Is in the Past</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org">Zócalo Public Square</a>.</p>
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		<title>2015 Will Be the Year of the Throwback</title>
		<link>https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2015/01/05/2015-will-be-the-year-of-the-throwback/inquiries/trade-winds/</link>
		<comments>https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2015/01/05/2015-will-be-the-year-of-the-throwback/inquiries/trade-winds/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2015 08:01:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>by Andrés Martinez</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Trade Winds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrés Martinez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[communication]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[new year]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/?p=57526</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>My friend Greg long ago convinced me that instead of a laundry list of resolutions, what we really need every new year is just one catch-all aspirational slogan, more likely to be remembered past January. Like “Find the fix in ’06.” When I crowd-sourced the challenge of a slogan for this new year, a wise 10-year-old I know came up with, “See the unseen in ’15.”</p>
<p>I like it because it is both a timeless exhortation—to expand one’s horizons—and a particularly timely one. The year 2015—the far-away year Marty McFly travels to in the 1980s classic <em>Back to the Future</em>—is shaping up, ironically, to be a year when the reassuringly familiar reasserts itself. Such mainstays as the Bush-versus-Clinton dynastic feud, the <em>Star Wars</em> saga, interest rates, U.S. power around the world, the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers, and the telephone all are poised to make a comeback this year. </p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2015/01/05/2015-will-be-the-year-of-the-throwback/inquiries/trade-winds/">2015 Will Be the Year of the Throwback</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org">Zócalo Public Square</a>.</p>
]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My friend Greg long ago convinced me that instead of a laundry list of resolutions, what we really need every new year is just one catch-all aspirational slogan, more likely to be remembered past January. Like “Find the fix in ’06.” When I crowd-sourced the challenge of a slogan for this new year, a wise 10-year-old I know came up with, “See the unseen in ’15.”</p>
<p>I like it because it is both a timeless exhortation—to expand one’s horizons—and a particularly timely one. The year 2015—the far-away year Marty McFly travels to in the 1980s classic <em>Back to the Future</em>—is shaping up, ironically, to be a year when the reassuringly familiar reasserts itself. Such mainstays as the Bush-versus-Clinton dynastic feud, the <em>Star Wars</em> saga, interest rates, U.S. power around the world, the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers, and the telephone all are poised to make a comeback this year. But don’t trust me: Grab a half-dozen Post-it notes and make a few forecasts of your own on the defining questions of 2015.</p>
<p>Before going any further, however, I realize my last comeback suggestion might seem absurd: that the phone, used as such, as in the lost art of dialing and talking, is back. But the hacking of Sony in late 2014 may prove a tipping point, forcing people in many different workplaces to avoid putting certain things in writing. “Call me” may turn out to be among the most emailed words in 2015, shedding their once ominous overtones to become shorthand for, “I have something juicy to say about this, but I would be crazy to write it.” Here’s an interesting forecast close to home: Write on your first Post-it whether you think you will spend more or less time talking on your phone in 2015 than in 2014 (and figure it out at year’s end).</p>
<p>In politics, 2015 is shaping up to be a throwback year as Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton explore, and likely announce, their 2016 presidential bids. Will Bush or Mitt Romney or someone less aligned with the party’s business wing (Rand Paul, Ted Cruz?) be ahead in the GOP’s polls as 2015 comes to a close, on the eve of primary season? Write down your prediction on a Post-it (eschewing email for obvious reasons). And, if it is Bush riding high, will the dynastic hue of the contest affect how voters view Clinton?</p>
<p>The appeal of the familiar is understandable: The country has had a hard time settling into a semblance of normalcy pretty much since the start of this millennium, buffeted by a series of booms and busts, not to mention wars. Now the Federal Reserve, the institution wielding the greatest (if underappreciated) power over our financial affairs, is coaxing us to be OK with going back to normal. 2015 is when the Fed plans to put an end to its emergency measure of keeping the important benchmark interest rate it charges financial institutions at essentially zero. One defining story line for the year is whether this is seen as a vote of confidence in the economy, or whether it spooks markets addicted to artificial stimulation. Use a third Post-it note to guess whether the Dow Industrials Average will crack 20,000 and end 2015 above that level, which is slightly more than 10 percent higher than it is today.</p>
<p>In either case, the United States will look like a safe haven compared to much of the world. Our lead in all aspects of information technology keeps growing. We’re experiencing a manufacturing renaissance. We are well on our way to becoming one of the world’s lowest-cost (and self-sufficient) energy producers. 2014 started with a barrel of oil costing some $20 more than a share of Apple. The year closed with a surging share of Apple costing almost twice as much as a plummeting barrel of oil ($114 to $60). Go ahead and forecast on your fourth Post-it which of these two (Apple share or barrel of oil) will cost more at the end of 2015, and what the spread will be.</p>
<p>It should become clearer in the coming year that America has gotten its mojo back. It isn’t only our economic prowess. There’s also a renewed acceptance of American power and influence in much of the world, courtesy of Vladimir Putin’s antics, China’s extraterritorial assertiveness, the implosion of the anti-American left in Latin America, and all the global challenges—climate change, pandemics like Ebola, the persistence of radical Islamist terrorism—that still require U.S leadership.</p>
<p>This desire on the part of many countries for closer ties, coupled with America’s renewed economic confidence and domestic political trends, might make possible an ambitious trans-Pacific trade deal. And that would signal to the world that America is no longer stuck in the Middle East. On your fifth Post-it forecast a ranking of Iraq, Ukraine, Mexico, and China, according to the number of times each is mentioned in 2015 in <em>The New York Times</em>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, information technologies continue to empower us. But now the revolution turns inward, as the next frontier of the Information Age that brought the outside world to our fingertips—the next great unseen that we will see—will be within ourselves. 2015 will be the year of the iWatch and other tracking and diagnostic technologies—some wearable, some in your medicine cabinet, others like cheaper, faster, and less intrusive blood tests at the nearby drugstore—that will allow us to acquire unprecedented self-knowledge.</p>
<p>This will keep the topic of inequality alive, as we talk about how such technologies create a new “digital divide.” I don’t have a clever forecasting prompt here for your last Post-it, but rather a question worth jotting down and contemplating: What does it mean for a society to have some people walking around with sophisticated dashboards measuring their well-being, while many others don’t, and remain in the dark? That seems qualitatively different than having the divide be defined around one’s access to knowledge of China or finances.</p>
<p>As bullish as I am on 2015, I should caution readers that I am usually optimistic at the start of every new year. It must be a personal flaw. And that’s why “See the unseen in 2015” is a perfect personal slogan, and not just as an exhortation to climb a mountain or go on safari or avail myself of these self-tracking technologies. The slogan is an antidote to my own complacency, a cautionary admonition to be on the lookout for the unexpected shocks that can upset my rosy scenarios.</p>
<p>After all, no one has ever said that, when it looked like nothing could go wrong, nothing went wrong. Happy new year.</p>
<p>The post <a rel="nofollow" href="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org/2015/01/05/2015-will-be-the-year-of-the-throwback/inquiries/trade-winds/">2015 Will Be the Year of the Throwback</a> appeared first on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://legacy.zocalopublicsquare.org">Zócalo Public Square</a>.</p>
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