And that might be just the beginning. With economic and educational reforms underway, Mexico’s rise could accelerate. By one estimate, Mexico will be the world’s fifth largest economy by 2050.

Yes, Mexico faces serious problems of corruption and violence at home. But the country is also investing billions of dollars in infrastructure and transportation near the border. That is already resulting in closer ties between Mexico and the Southwest, with economic, social, and cultural impacts

In advance of the Zócalo/Azteca event, “What Does Mexico’s Economic Rise Mean for the Southwest?”, we asked journalists, scholars, and other experts: What will the emergence of a First World Mexico mean for the Southwest?

The post The U.S.-Mexico Border Is Booming appeared first on Zócalo Public Square.

Before a full house at the Heard Museum, New York University historian Andrew Needham, author of Power Lines: Phoenix and the Making of the Modern Southwest, suggested that Phoenix had an advantage when it comes to questions of urban sustainability. The city couldn’t have grown as it did after the Second World War without reckoning with its desert environment.

“Phoenix has thought about these issues longer than other cities have,” said Needham. “One of the reason why people ask the question, ‘Should Phoenix Exist?’ is because of the interaction between the built environment and the natural environment here.”

Needham and the other two panelists—former Phoenix Mayor and Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard, and Sarah Porter, director of ASU’s Kyl Center for Water Policy at Morrison Institute—emphasized that Phoenix’s record of sustainable design is mixed, depending on whether the topic is power or water.

Because water was so scarce, and because Arizona was in competition with other places (like California) for it, Phoenix did better in building sustainable structures. “Arizona… created a water system that has several reinforcing infrastructures that can mitigate for failure. That can make Arizona a resilient place,” said Needham.

But power was plentiful, and so Phoenix came to rely on coal and coal-fired plants from the Navajo nation hundreds of miles to the north. That power has had all kinds of costs—for the environment and for the Navajos, who, Needham argued, haven’t gotten the full value of the energy they provided. It also fueled energy-intensive suburban development in Phoenix—and the idea of a growth that could continue forever.

That said, the panelists argued that Phoenix is, in many ways, “a marvel,” as Needham called it. Goddard, the former mayor, said, “we created an entirely new type of urban living.” But he added that the city needed to be more mature—with everything from new sources of energy (“the era of coal and the long-distance transmission is just about at an end,” he said) to landscaping that is more appropriate for a desert.

“We’re just now beginning to mature,” he said, adding. “Do we make a prototype of what a city is going to be? I think we do, so we better do it right.”

Porter, of the ASU Kyl Center for Water Policy, said that, “in comparison with other Western cities,” Phoenix got water right. She noted two timely anniversaries this year: the 30th anniversary of the very first Central Arizona Project water delivery, and the 35th anniversary of Arizona’s groundwater management act. (California, by contrast, only regulated groundwater for the first time last year).

Those two acts made the water of Phoenix and Tucson secure, but change is necessary to deal long-term with drought, Colorado River water shortages, and the impact of growth, panelists said. Porter said cities need to include water plans as part of their economic development plans; the city of Chandler, Arizona, has recent taken steps to create a tiered water system that gives the city the power to limit high-water users.

She said the changes in water and sustainability would require more engagement from people in Phoenix, from changes in their own behavior to pressuring elected officials. “When was the last time you asked a candidate for council his thoughts about the city water plan?” she asked the audience. “We’ve tended to leave water up to the experts, but we can’t do that anymore.”

Goddard said that legal standards for water would have to be rethought; water rights are tied to using water, which discourages conservation, he said. He added that Phoenix has an opportunity—provided by its transportation system—to rethink its land use policies that have encouraged low-density housing and sprawl.

“You don’t have to have a half acre backyard and a pickup truck to be happy,” he said, pausing for laughter. “I know that’s revolutionary in this community.”

The event’s moderator, Arizona Republic columnist Robert Robb, took that moment to pose what Phoenix scholar-lawyer-author Grady Gammage, Jr. has called “The Bob Robb Question”: Given that outdoor water usage is half of water use, and that projections of shortage over 25 years show excess demand, why not raise water prices until you eat up that excess demand?

Porter called that a good question. But Goddard noted the political peril; when Tucson raised water prices dramatically to encourage reductions of usage, “I think the entire council was recalled.”

During a question-and-answer session with the audience, many of the queries focused on the particulars of water, water conservation, and the practice of banking water in the ground. Is water spiritual? one questioner asked (It is, especially in a desert, said Goddard).

The panelists suggested that people should appreciate the wonders of the desert more. “We do not honor the most biodiverse desert in the world often enough,” said Porter.

“The Sonoran desert is very beautiful,” said Goddard, while the hills in New England are “redundant—they have all that extra green on them. We take our mountains pure.”

The post Phoenix Is a Survivor appeared first on Zócalo Public Square.

In advance of the Zócalo event, “Should Phoenix Exist?”, we asked a panel of experts: What is the single most important factor in the explosive growth of the Southwest over the last 70 years?

The post Here Are the Biggest Reasons Why the Southwest Keeps Expanding appeared first on Zócalo Public Square.

Arizona Municipal Water Users Association executive director Kathleen Ferris said the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation estimates a potential shortage of 3.2 million acre-feet of water in the next 50 years, as demand for Colorado River water outstrips capacity. “We have to get back to reality,” she said. “What can that river really sustain, and how can we ensure that new growth is met by sustainable water supplies?”

Nature Conservancy Colorado River program director Taylor Hawes said that the river is also facing significant environmental challenges. The Colorado River is home to 42 native fish species, 30 of which are found nowhere else in the world. Four have gone extinct, and 16 are imperiled. Striking a balance between a healthy river system and the demands of farms and people is not an easy task.

Hawes said that it’s difficult to get people—who are dealing with 25 or 100 issues in their everyday lives—to make water a priority. The people of Denver and Las Vegas, for instance, recognize that the Colorado River has a problem, but they won’t recognize that it’s their problem. They don’t know where their water comes from.

Here in Havasu, said McKinnon, you’re right on the river, but the desert city has a limited supply of water. What’s it like to see golf courses in Phoenix and resorts in Las Vegas using the resource in a way that seems so wasteful?

Lake Havasu City’s water resources coordinator, Doyle Wilson, said that living on the river offers a much better perspective. But in general, people in rural environments—particularly if they get their water from a well or have it hauled in—are more aware of how much water they use than people in cities.

Hawes said that throughout the Southwest, “we’ve done too good a job in our water utilities”; people don’t know it’s a limited resource. Arizona, however, has changed the tone of the discussion by highlighting that the state is a desert—and needs to use less water.

Changing water use isn’t just about individuals’ decisions; significant legislative change requires the seven states that make up the Colorado River Basin to agree on big issues. “Nothing major gets done on the Colorado River without the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation being involved and without cooperation of the states,” said Ferris—which is why it takes a very long time. (Hawes referred to this glacial speed as “water time.”)

Because it can take decades to change water use laws, short-term efforts will have to be voluntary, said Ferris. One recent example of such an effort is an agreement by Lower Colorado Basin states to leave water in Lake Mead in order to prevent water shortages in Arizona.

Current laws, said Hawes, reflect the values of 150 years ago. They will be changed—but only when society gets behind them. In the meantime, we need to make space within the law for change.

Wilson said that a “spirit of cooperation has to take hold” throughout the Southwest. “Otherwise we will be mired in litigation for decades, and that doesn’t get anybody anywhere,” he said. In the meantime, he and other local water managers have taken the position that the best way to conserve water is to be as self-sufficient as possible: “We have to take care of ourselves.”

Some policies make self-sufficiency difficult. Wilson said that one policy he’d like to see changed prevents Lake Havasu City from making deals with Indian tribes for water lease agreements. Another rule designates all water below lake level under federal jurisdiction, which prevents the city from treating wastewater and storing it in the ground.

McKinnon asked the panelists how they find balance in their work between human water use and the river’s ecology.

Hawes said that it’s easy to know how much water a household needs and to make calculations based on that figure. But it’s a challenge to find a formula that dictates what the river needs. The Nature Conservancy is trying to replicate patterns found in nature as much as possible, like the big spring floods on the river that are followed by a hot, dry fall season.

We have to understand we’re never going to restore the river to what it was, said Wilson—but we still need to watch it carefully.

In the audience question-and-answer session, the panelists were asked whether homeowners and farmers pay different amounts for Colorado River water.

Yes, said Ferris—and it depends on where people and businesses are, too. In California’s Imperial Irrigation District, farmers pay $20 per acre-foot of Colorado River water. A single acre-foot, said Ferris, will serve 2.5 households for an entire year.

For farmers in Colorado’s Western Slope, an acre-foot costs $125, said Hawes.

And in Lake Havasu City, said Doyle, the city pays $0.25 per acre-foot—mainly because they treat the water themselves.

Why, asked another audience member, don’t people in the Southwest see water as a common resource, one to be best used by the most people possible?

Ferris said that local economies were built on having secure water rights. Over the years, legislation gets piled up on those rights, and laws become interwoven and difficult to change.

Most people came to the West from the East, which was wet, said Hawes. The miners and farmers were the first to migrate—and the government needed to convince them that they could make a living here. Guarantees of a consistent water supply did the work of convincing them.

The post Whose Colorado River Is It? appeared first on Zócalo Public Square.